Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army War College
Articles of Interest
Op-Ed: Weekend at Osama's
February 2012 | Dr. Cori E. Dauber
Even before Osama bin Laden was killed, the Obama administration began arguing that al-Qaeda was close to final defeat because so many of its senior leaders were now dead largely as a result of drone operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But that assessment depends on an awfully narrow definition of “al-Qaeda” — and of “dead.” Even before the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, al-Qaeda was structured as a central organization with multiple national affiliates in the role of franchises. Today, that central “home office” is certainly far weaker than it was, but the affiliates remain, and they are anything but inactive. (Continue reading...)
The Importance of Images to America's Fight Against Violent Jihadism
January 2012 | Dr. Cori E. Dauber
Americans were surely equally dismayed about a video circulating at viral speed whether they found out about the story via email, discovered it on You Tube, on Twitter, on Facebook, or simply heard about it the old fashioned way; when a network news anchor reported it. The video appeared to show a group of U.S. Marine Corps snipers standing over the bodies of several dead Afghan nationals and urinating on them — laughing while they did so. (Continue reading...)
Preserving U.S. National Security Interests Through a Liberal World Construct
January 2012 | LTC Kevin Fujimoto
The emergence of peer competitors, not terrorism, presents the greatest long-term threat to our national security. Over the past decade, while the United States concentrated its geopolitical focus on fighting two land wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, China has quietly begun implementing a strategy to emerge as the dominant imperial power within Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. Within the next 2 decades, China will likely replace the United States as the Asia-Pacific regional hegemonic power, if not replace us as the global superpower.1 Although China presents its rise as peaceful and non-hegemonic, its construction of naval bases in neighboring countries and military expansion in the region contradict that argument. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: The Technology Avalanche and the Future of War
January 2012 | COL Phillip R. Cuccia
The chief futurist for Cisco, Dave Evans, describes it as “The Technology Avalanche” — the exponential increase in technological breakthroughs that, like an avalanche, will disruptively and permanently change the landscape. Future “disruptive” technologies will certainly change the way we conduct war. (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: Cyber Infrastructure Protection
December 2011 | Dr. Tarek N. Saadawi, COL Louis H. Jordan, Jr
A two-day colloquium titled Cyber Security Infrastructure Protection was conducted on June 8-9, 2011, by the Center of Information Networking and Telecommunications (CINT) at the Grove School of Engineering, the Colin Powell Center for Public Policy, both at the City University of New York, City College (CCNY), and the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) at the U.S. Army War College. The colloquium brought together government, business, and academic leaders to assess the vulnerability of our cyber infrastructure and provide strategic policy direction for the protection of that infrastructure. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: The West and the Durability and Problems of Monarchies in the Arab Spring
December 2011 | Dr. W. Andrew Terrill
The regional response to the Arab Spring has alarmed a number of international observers because a variety of ugly governments are displaying their ugliest side. No civilized person condones the nature of Libyan leader Muhammar Qadhafi’s final hour, but equally no one doubts that he worked hard to earn such a fate. Likewise, in Syria and Yemen dictators are struggling to maintain power against waves of popular unrest and anger hoping to avoid the fate of their counterparts in Cairo, Tripoli, and Tunis. The Syrian regime is stronger than that in Yemen and continues to use unrelenting brutality because it can. The Yemeni president, by contrast, schemes and attempts to buy time. He kills demonstrators as well, but has no realistic chance of stamping out the rebellion by force as Damascus is attempting to do. Yet, the Arab World has monarchies as well as nonmonarchical authoritarian regimes, and it is worth considering the less violent ways in which the majority of these countries are coping with revolutionary upheaval. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: Where Have All the Army Generals Gone?
November 2011 | Dr. Leonard Wong
It was a bittersweet occasion when the Army's Chief of Staff, General Martin E. Dempsey, was selected for the position of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — the highest ranking officer in the U.S. military. Had he remained the Army's chief, General Dempsey would have ably provided critically needed leadership and wisdom as the Army rebuilds itself after a grueling decade of war. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: China's Aircraft Carrier: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
October 2011 | Dr. David Lai
China test-sailed its first aircraft carrier on August 10, 2011. The maiden sail was remarkably low key, but its significance is far-reaching. China's journey to this début started in the mid-1990s when it approached Ukraine for the possibility of acquiring the half-built, but practically abandoned, Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag. The keel of this hulk was laid in 1985 and the ship was intended to serve in the Soviet Pacific Fleet, however, the construction was abruptly halted with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukraine, home to the Soviet Union's warship industry, kept the unfinished carrier as a “divorce asset,” but it had no money or need to complete the project. China eventually acquired the ship with a $20 million auction bid in 1998. At the time, this sea monster was literally an empty and rusty shell, since all of the critical equipment had been removed, including the rudder. China, however, was determined to bring it back to life. (Continue reading...)
Economic Transition in Afghanistan: How to Soften a Hard Landing
October 2011 | Dr. Leif Rosenberger
The clock is ticking. Between now and 2014, upwards of 150,000 foreign troops and 30,000 contractors will start leaving Afghanistan. Donor aid is also declining. In the past year, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) budget has been cut in half. In other words, the war economy is unraveling. (Continue reading...)
2011-2012 U.S. Army War College Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL)
September 2011 | Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II
Update: The PDF of the KSIL is now available. Topics with an * are from Headquarters Department of the Army G-3/5 and G-4 The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda. In addition, the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan have been assessed, and U.S. and Coalition forces continue to build upon past successes. Political, social, and economic developments in Asia, Europe, Africa, and the Western Hemisphere have altered the global landscape as well. (Continue reading...)
Anticipating Contemporary War: How Well Did We Do?
September 2011 | Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria, II
Few recognized it at the time, but in 1974 the eminent British historian Sir Michael Howard wrote what was to become one of the most important phrases for the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA)-Transformation era of the 1990s and early 2000s: (Continue reading...)
Profession of Arms — Starfish Metaphor
September 2011 | COL (R) Charles D. Allen
The Profession of Arms (PoA) Campaign began with much fanfare, but the Community of Practice (CoP) has since wrestled with many important issues during the planning and conduct of the campaign. While there are many implicit assumptions about the Army as a Profession, the PoA White Paper (December 8, 2010) provided the catalyst to explore what it means to be a PoA. In the initial planning sessions with the Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (CG TRADOC), the endeavor to define the PoA led to the stalking horse of attributes and the challenge to define the membership within the profession. This short paper is meant to address the latter question of “who is in” and “who is out” of the PoA. (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: Kingston Conference on International Security (KCIS-2011): The Changing Arctic: Sovereignty, Resources, and Security
August 2011 | Dru Lauzon
The sixth annual Kingston Conference on International Security (KCIS-2011), on “The Changing Arctic: Sovereignty, Resources, and Security,” was held June 13-15, 2011, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference was organized by the Centre for International and Defence Policy, Queen's University; and the Chair of Defence Management Studies, School of Policy Studies, Queen's University; the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the U.S. Army War College; and the Land Force Doctrine and Training System of the Canadian Forces. It was designed to outline strategies for coping with the rapid climatic changes that have taken place in the Arctic in recent years, and to discuss both the challenges and the opportunities that will arise as a result of the opening of this vast region to more intensive research and development. This conference was attended by more than 200 government officials, experts from universities and think tanks, and U.S. and Canadian military personnel; it featured a wide range of presentations that sought to outline the factors that will shape the interaction of key stakeholders in the Arctic in the years to come. (Continue reading...)
At Crossroads: Iceland's Defense and Security Relations, 1940-2011
August 2011 | Einar Benediktsson
It is a pleasure to introduce this very interesting and relevant paper written by my colleague and friend, Ambassador Einar Benediktsson. In this paper, Ambassador Benediktsson looks at security policy from the standpoint of the totality of Icelandic national security as distinct from a single portion of it. His tough-mindedness, his extensive knowledge of security issues, and his remarkable refinement in dealing with political matters make him an invaluable commentator on Iceland's security policy. His paper offers some insights that should help the next generation of Icelandic leaders address the problems that they will face in the future. He understands that there are practical obstacles and limits for a small state like Iceland to overcome as it conducts and develops its security policy, fully understanding that excessive expectations must be avoided. In sum, Ambassador Benediktsson addresses the misconception among many in Iceland concerning the extent of Iceland's influence in the security policy arena. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: The Criminals South of the Border: Lessons from Mexico
August 2011 | Dr. Max G. Manwaring
Authorities have no consistent or reliable data on the Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCO)-gang phenomenon in Mexico. Nevertheless, the TCO-gang phenomenon in that country is acknowledged to be large, complex, and increasingly violent. In addition, the gang situation is known to be different in the north (along the U.S. border) than it is in the south (along the Guatemala-Belize borders). Second, the phenomenon is also different in the areas between the northern and southern borders of Mexico. Third, there is a formidable gang presence known to exist throughout the entire country (regardless of the questionable accuracy of the data estimating the size and extent of the gang presence), and—given the weakness of the national political and police institutions—criminality has considerable opportunity to prosper.1 As a result, the rate of homicides along the northern and southern borders is considered epidemic (e.g., “worse than Iraq”),2 and Mexico has the highest incidence of kidnapping in the world.3 Finally, violent TCO-gang activity in Mexico clearly threatens the national stability and sovereignty of the state, and the personal security of the citizenry.4 (Continue reading...)
The Arab Spring and the Future of U.S. Interests and Cooperative Security in the Arab World
August 2011 | Dr. W. Andrew Terrill
The Arab Spring is an ongoing and deeply significant process occurring in the contemporary Middle East that will have important implications for the United States government. In general, the spread of less corrupt and more democratic governments in the Middle East will be of tremendous benefit to the United States, since such governments are more often immune to radicalism and are more moderate, stable, and inclusive. Nevertheless, each country involved in the Arab Spring needs to be examined individually, and it must be understood that democracy is not an inevitable outcome for any of the countries involved in the current unrest. Many revolutions start out well and end badly. Consequently, caution is needed in assessing U.S. interests in this whirlpool of events.1 (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: The Energy and Security Nexus: A Strategic Dilemma
July 2011 | Dr. Carolyn Pumphrey
On March 3-4, 2011, the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, North Carolina State University, and the Strategic Studies Institute held a colloquium at the McKimmon Center in Raleigh. The event received additional financial support from the Research Triangle Energy Consortium, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory-North Carolina State University Collaborative Research Program, and Duke University’s Program in American Grand Strategy. The colloquium, entitled “The Energy and Security Nexus: A Strategic Dilemma,” was attended by 128 persons from Federal and state government, academia, think tanks, and a wide variety of local organizations and businesses working on energy issues. The goal of this conference was to explore the connections between energy and security (human, national, and collective) and to consider how best to resolve strategic dilemmas. (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: Conflict Management: A Tool for U.S. National Security Strategy
July 2011 | Ms. Mackenzie Duelge, Esq., Dr. Volker Franke
On February 25, 2011, Kennesaw State University and the Strategic Studies Institute hosted the Symposium “Conflict Management: A Tool for U.S. National Security Strategy.” The three panels conducted over the course of the day covered the following topics: “Responding to New Foreign Policy and National Security Threats,” “WOG Prospects and Challenges,” and “WOG Lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan.” The Symposium discussions ranged from the conceptual to the practical with a focus on the challenges and desirability of interagency cooperation in international interventions. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: A National Strategic Narrative and Grand Strategy for the 21st Century
July 2011 | Dr. Jack A. LeCuyer
Former U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Gordon L. Sullivan, when commenting on his program for the Louisiana Maneuvers, which were designed to help define Force XXI and the Army’s role in modern warfare in the information age after Operation DESERT STORM, once remarked “that if you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” wryly noting that “hope is not a method.” Yogi Berra provided similar wisdom by counseling us, “When you get to a fork in the road, take it!” (Continue reading...)
The Arab Upheavals and the Future of the U.S. Military Policies and Presence in the Middle East and the Gulf
June 2011 | Dr. W. Andrew Terrill
The political and social upheaval in the Arab World known as the Arab Spring is one of the most significant set of events to unfold in the Middle East since the fall of the Ottoman Empire following World War I. The United States seeks a democratic outcome to all of these conflicts and is also concerned about the human rights of demonstrators in countries where they are treated with brutality. Additionally, traditional U.S. concerns for the region discussed by President Obama in a May 19, 2011, address include: (1) fighting terrorism, (2) opposing nuclear proliferation, (3) supporting freedom of commerce, including commerce in oil, and, (4) supporting Israel and the Middle East peace effort. Currently, the Arab Spring has had only a limited impact on these U.S. interests. The Arab monarchies, which are allied with the United States, appear to be the least vulnerable to regional unrest (except for Bahrain) and are moving rapidly to increase the stake of individual citizens within their political systems so as to prevent serious unrest. Bahrain, by contrast, is simmering with sectarian anger after the brutal suppression of its mostly Shi’ite demonstrators. Despite this situation, the United States can probably be more helpful to Shi’ites in that country by remaining engaged with the Bahraini government which has already shown itself responsive to some U.S. concerns about building an inclusive society. (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: Post-Heroic Warfare?
June 2011 | Conor Tucker, Erin Fitzgerald
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, the University of Oxford Changing Character of War Programme, and the Australian Land Warfare Studies Centre partnered to conduct an international conference entitled “Post-Heroic Warfare?” The conference was held in Oxford, UK, from March 21-23, 2011. It brought together over 200 civilian and military scholars and practitioners from a variety of disciplines and backgrounds to discuss apparent changes in soldier and warrior identities, and to assess the potential strategic and policy implications of those changes. Conference speakers addressed many of the issues raised by Edward Luttwak’s article “Toward Post-Heroic Warfare” (Foreign Affairs. 1995), but also brought more recent issues to light in the course of five sessions: (1) “Heroism and Self-Sacrifice,” (2) “Casualty Aversion,” (3) “Casualty Avoidance,” (4) “Combat Motivation,” and (5) the potential transition from “Heroes to Victims.” A volume of selected conference papers edited by Dr. Sybille Scheipers will be published by Oxford University Press. The following is a summary of each of the panels and presentations. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: U.S. Intelligence at a Crossroads
June 2011 | Dr. Stephen J. Blank
Despite the killing of Osama bin Laden, this is not and should not be a time for euphoria concerning the state of U.S. intelligence. Even though all praise is due to everyone who participated in the often fruitless, but ultimately rewarding search for bin Laden, the success of this mission should not lead us to complacency about the state of our intelligence system. Earlier this year, The New York Times reported that President Obama was unhappy with the lack of adequate intelligence warning about the possibilities of revolution in Tunisia and Egypt. This lack of adequate warning was even more unwarranted, given that President Obama himself had written a five-page memo to his administration in 2010 warning about the restiveness of Arab societies, and Secretary of State Clinton had been making important speeches stressing the same thing. Nevertheless, as the President’s reaction indicated, we were quite unprepared, and our policymaking reflected it. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: Conventional Arms Control and European Security
May 2011 | Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland
The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (often referred to as the CFE Treaty) was signed in Paris on November 19, 1990, between members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Warsaw Pact. At its signing, many analysts hailed it as “the cornerstone of European security,” and it is clearly the most ambitious and far ranging conventional arms control treaty in history. It underscored a transformation of European security that is still ongoing and whose end state is unclear.1 However, this agreement and the security architecture it established are now endangered. (Continue reading...)
Colloquium Brief: American Society and Its Profession of Arms
May 2011 | Dr. Leonard Wong
American Society and Its Profession of Arms was the theme of the 22nd annual U.S. Army War College Strategy Conference held April 5–7, 2011. The topic was particularly relevant as the U.S. Army is in the midst of a year-long review of the military profession. The 3-day event brought together leaders from the military, academia, government, media, and general public to discuss topics such as the role of the military, reintegrating veterans back into society, the role of faith in the military, and the impact of deployments on military families. View the conference website for detailed info on the Annual Strategy Conference. (Continue reading...)
How Smart Economic Strategy Could Strengthen the Afghan Counterinsurgency
February 2011 | Dr. Leif Rosenberger
Without question, the war in Afghanistan is a formidable challenge for the U.S. The success or failure of the counterinsurgency strategy that General Petraeus is implementing in Afghanistan will ultimately take years to determine. However, General Petraeus is absolutely correct on one critical point: there is no purely military solution in Afghanistan. Only through a truly comprehensive, whole-of-government approach, can the U.S. and its coalition partners succeed in Afghanistan. (Continue reading...)
Is Tunisia Tipping?
February 2011 | Mr. Warren P. Gunderman
From July 2007 to June 2010, I was the Senior Defense Official and Defense Attaché in Tunisia. For those 3 years, I daily had the opportunity to routinely interact with and get to know and understand the Tunisian government, its military, and most importantly, its people. For those who have lived in the country, the fact of the “Jasmine Revolution” is less of a surprise than the timing. To understand why, alone among Arab nations, Tunisia was able to overthrow a dictatorial regime through a popular uprising, it is necessary to understand what makes Tunisia a unique nation in the Greater Middle East. (Continue reading...)
Op-Ed: What If They Threw a War and…
February 2011 | Mr. Lawrence Kaplan
This is the February Op-Ed of the SSI Newsletter As a member of the media who reported on the U.S. military in Iraq, I had numerous opportunities to measure the “gap” between the press corps and the Armed Forces. One of these came a few years ago at a grubby Italian restaurant near a military base in North Carolina, where I was having dinner with a senior Army officer that I had met in West Baghdad. We ate, talked about the war and, on the television above the bar we watched the ensuing debate concerning the grim outlook of the Iraq War. The dueling commentators on the TV screen were saying that the upcoming 2006 midterm congressional elections would doom the U.S. enterprise in Iraq. They were sure of themselves: This was unquestionably a Tet moment. What they were arguing about was my dinner companion’s war—in which he’d presided over entire villages, commanded thousands of Soldiers and, too often, lifted their remains onto helicopters. But he seemed more intrigued by his shrimp scampi. “The place they’re talking about,” he explained between bites, “I don’t even recognize it.” (Continue reading...)
Coherence and Contrasts
January 2011 | COL (R) Charles D. Allen
On November 18, 2010, two late night television shows provided fanfare for two men from different ends of the leadership spectrum. One man’s example epitomized tactical and direct-level leadership; the other was the definition of strategic leadership. To me, it came together while watching interviews that were less than 20 minutes apart. The Colbert Report featured Medal of Honor recipient Army Staff Sergeant (SSG) Salvatore Giunta, and The Tonight Show host Jay Leno spoke with former President George W. Bush. The reasons for the national spotlight could not have been more different but the two men are inextricably linked. (Continue reading...)
Preventing Yemen from Becoming Fallujah
November 2010 | Dr. W. Andrew Terrill
In the rapidly mutating world of international terrorist organizations, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has become one of the most serious threats facing the United States. The recent AQAP attempt to use parcel bombs against U.S.-bound aircraft is only the most recent manifestation of this problem. The Christmas 2009 attempted bombing of a U.S. passenger aircraft in Detroit by a Nigerian radical trained by Yemeni terrorists was an earlier warning to the United States about the dangers of neglecting events in this country. Both of these near catastrophic episodes underscored the necessity for serious U.S. efforts to support all reasonable endeavors to defeat this organization with an informed, careful, and meticulous strategy based on a comprehensive understanding of Yemen and the terrorists. This requirement may be especially clear when one considers the chain of events that could be set off if AQAP is eventually able to implement a spectacular terrorist event. Apart from the human cost of such a tragedy, severe public pressure will undoubtedly exist for military intervention in Yemen with U.S. ground combat troops. Such an intervention would infuriate virtually the entire Yemeni population regardless of the objective merits of the U.S. case for the offensive use of U.S. ground combat forces. It could lead to what al Qaeda refers to as a “bleeding war,” a struggle by the United States to pacify a hostile population which dissipates U.S. power in a hope to drive it from the region. Yemen could become like the Iraq city of Fallujah in 2004, a cauldron of radicalism and anti-American hate. To head this off, AQAP’s capacity for spectacular terrorist strikes must correspondingly be ended soon while the organization itself must eventually be destroyed. (Continue reading...)
Response to "America's Flawed Afghanistan Strategy"
October 2010 | MAJ Peter A. Dvorscak
Update: Steve Metz responds. Dr. Metz discusses many aspects of the Global War on Terror in his August 2010 SSI Newsletter Op-Ed, but intertwines subjects, such as the Taliban and al Qaeda, without putting the subjects in the proper perspective. (Continue reading...)
Final Response to "America's Flawed Afghanistan Strategy"
October 2010 | Dr. Steven Metz
MAJ Dvorscak's thoughtful letter makes a number of important and powerful points. In some cases, I suspect that I simply expressed my idea poorly or was limited by time constraints in the extent to which I could explain them. On others, though, we'll agree to disagree. (Continue reading...)